Holiday Sales Predictions Hit The Mark
There’s a definite festive buzz around the Adobe offices at present, but perhaps not the type you’d expect. I am of course referring to the Adobe Digital Index Holiday predictions we released last month.
Each year we predict the online sales in the run up to Christmas, and this year we’ve extended our report to include Europe. If you’ve not read the report, I would invite you to do so here: 2014 Holiday Shopping Prediction (pdf), or you can read the great breakdown of the European predictions on CMO.com: Holiday Shopping In Europe Gets Mobile, With UK, Ireland Most Advanced.
For those of you short on time, here’s a quick overview from Mark Zablan’s, (President, Adobe EMEA) blog article Optimising Online Marketing Efforts this Christmas Season:
“Peak online shopping days across Europe are forecast to harness $2.1 billion, with mobile shopping growing 38 percent in Europe (outpacing even the U.S.) and Denmark projected to see a growth in mobile online shopping of 56 percent! The UK, additionally, will see the highest percentage of mobile shoppers this year, with 1 in 4 Christmas transactions coming from mobile.”
Mobile is the key theme for this year, and my colleague Jamie Brighton captures it best when he said: “To put the findings of the Adobe Digital Index Holiday Report into two words? Mobile growth”.
The Adobe Digital Index team puts a great deal of work into bringing us these predictions, which are based on analysis of more than a trillion visits from 4500 websites over the last 7 years! How well did we do in comparison to the actual spend figures this holiday season? Well the results are in, so let’s compare actual sales to our predictions.
Writing this from a festive Munich, I think it’s only right to start with Germany. We predicted that Germany would have the largest online shopping day in Europe, with France and the UK in second and third.
https://blog.adobe.com/media_b47eb0a8421a72acf2d9098f205f5ba27a7e65a9.gifIn mobile share, we were distinctly mid table with the British, Irish, Norwegians, & Swedish taking the top of the table.
https://blog.adobe.com/media_940f6c585778242ba69f0136ed36c0c7fe12377d.gifSo how did we do? In Germany, the largest shopping day so far was last Sunday (Dec 6) where consumers spent €418 million, with 17% of purchases coming from mobile devices (11% from tablets and 6% from tablets). The total spend was actually slightly lower than our expectation, and the mobile share above expectations. However, looking at the overall trend so far it seems the team has been pretty accurate:
Over to our friends across the channel, it appears the UK has truly embraced the Black Friday shopping event and smashed our predictions with a huge peak of €427 million, followed by a ‘Cyber Monday’ peak of €356 million. For anyone wanting more information on Black Friday & Cyber Monday, I’d recommend Ryan Green’s post on our US blog: Black Friday is the New Cyber Monday.
France and Sweden have both performed close to our predictions. Online shopping Cyber Monday came in at €311 million in France slightly higher than the subsequent Sunday. In Sweden, Cyber Monday online sales were surpassed by sales on Dec 14, which came in at €80 million.
Over to the Netherlands, as in the UK, we saw an increase for both Black Friday and Cyber Monday with the whole weekend period over performing until online sales hit their peak for this year on Dec 8.
Overall, I’m pleased to see that on the whole the Digital Index team has been pretty accurate with the actuals closely following our predictions. It is also a testament to the predictive value of the vast amount of anonymised data over the last 7 years. To think that in Germany 17% of online shopping is now on mobile, and 25% for the UK, really makes me appreciate working in such a fast moving area as digital marketing which has seen the ecommerce landscape completely shift in just a few years. I wonder what percentage we’ll see next December?