Adobe Analytics: Prime Day expected to drive a record $14 billion online for U.S. retailers, growing 10.5 percent YoY

Image credit: Adobe Stock/ BHPX.

Adobe released today its online shopping forecast for the 2024 Prime Day event. Happening across 2 days (July 16-17), Prime Day has become a major industry-wide e-commerce moment, as consumers take advantage of discounts across retailers.

Based on Adobe Analytics data, the report provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud, relied upon by over 85 percent of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S.* to deliver, measure and personalize shopping experiences online.

Shoppers enticed by competitive discounts

Adobe expects day 1 of the Prime Day event (July 16) to drive $7.1 billion online, up an impressive 11.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). Day 2 (July 17) is expected to drive $6.9 billion online, up 9.2 percent YoY. Across both days, Adobe forecasts $14 billion in spend online, growing 10.5 percent YoY — setting a new record for the Prime Day event. Day 1 is also expected to be the biggest mobile shopping day of the year so far, driving $3.4 billion in online spend, and representing a 48.4 percent share compared to desktop shopping.

Strong spend will be driven by steeper discounts this year, expected to range between 9 percent and 22 percent (off listed price). Adobe expects electronics to have the biggest discounts at 22 percent (last year, discounts for electronics peaked at 14 percent). Other categories with major discounts will include apparel at 20 percent (vs 12 percent last year), home/furniture at 17 percent (vs 9 percent), toys at 15 percent (vs 12 percent), televisions at 14 percent (vs 5 percent), appliances at 12 percent (vs 7 percent), sporting goods at 11 percent (vs 6 percent) and computers at 9 percent (vs 8 percent).

‘Back-to-school’ shopping on the rise

Adobe expects strong ‘back-to-school’ spending online this year during the Prime Day event. This is informed in part by an observed early surge, where online spend is up 80 percent from July 1-7, 2024, compared to daily sales levels in June 2024. Adobe expects a boost in demand in the coming days, as consumers embrace bigger discounts during Prime Day. Timing plays a factor as well: The later date this year (the 2023 event was from July 11-12) moves it closer to the school season, which starts in August for many districts.

Consumers embrace flexible payment methods

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services have seen strong traction this year, as budget-conscious consumers tap more flexible ways to manage their expenses. From January 1 to June 30, 2024, BNPL services have driven over $39.7 billion in online spend, up 12.1 percent YoY. Adobe expects a substantial uptick in BNPL usage during the Prime Day event, driving between $1.09 and $1.11 billion in online spend across both days, and representing 18.1 percent and 19.6 percent growth YoY, respectively.

E-commerce crosses $500 billion mark

In the year so far (January 1 to June 30, 2024) consumers have spent $502.9 billion online, growing 7.4 percent YoY, and showing resilience in the digital economy. In the next three months (July 1 to September 30, 2024), Adobe is forecasting $229.1 billion in online spend, which represents 7.2 percent growth YoY.

Strong consumer spending this year has been driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices. The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories, shows that e-commerce prices have fallen for 22 months now — down 4.2 percent YoY in June 2024. Adobe’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would be even higher growth in topline consumer spend.