Adobe Analytics: Mobile shopping expected to drive 53 percent of online sales during 2024 holiday season

Image credit: Adobe Stock: Samon.

Adobe issued new e-commerce data today, profiling the slow but steady shift in consumer demand for shopping on smaller screens. In the first few months of 2024, consistent double-digit growth in mobile spend has put it neck-and-neck with desktop shopping. At this trajectory, Adobe sees a tipping point in the months ahead.

The holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec), which already saw mobile dominate last year, is expected to see even stronger growth this year. And going into 2025, Adobe is forecasting that mobile shopping will consistently eclipse desktop, in months outside of the holiday season. This would be a major shift in consumer behavior online. Adobe’s full analysis is below.

Based on Adobe Analytics data, this report provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

A slow and steady shift in consumer behavior

Back in the 2021 holiday season, 43 percent of online sales were driven by mobile devices, a modest increase from the year prior (2020) at 40 percent. In the years that followed, consumer demand for speed and convenience, combined with improved mobile shopping experiences, has driven a steady uptick in mobile usage. By the 2023 season, mobile overtook desktop for the first time, driving 51 percent of online sales. And in the upcoming season, Adobe expects 53 percent of online sales to come through mobile devices — a more definitive majority.

This would cap off a year that has already seen strong traction in mobile. Every month so far in 2024 has seen mobile share rising on a year-over-year (YoY) basis: In January 2024, mobile accounted for 46.7 percent of all online sales, but by July 2024, it reached 49.3 percent. Across these seven months, mobile share landed at 47.7 percent on average (up from 46.6 percent in the comparable period last year). This amounted to a record $280.4 billion spent through mobile devices (Jan-July 2024), representing 10.2 percent growth YoY.

One driving factor has been promotional events, as shoppers look to grab the best deals on-the-go. Mobile share of sales across major events in 2024 (including Prime Day, Fourth of July and Memorial Day) consistently overtook desktop shopping at 51 percent share on average.

Mobile growth supported by groceries, cosmetics and apparel

The rise in mobile shopping has also been bolstered by growth in certain e-commerce categories. Groceries is one of note, where mobile drove a significant 68.2 percent share of online sales in July 2024. In this category, mobile had already overtaken desktop shopping back in April 2021 — and has remained the dominant transaction channel since. Groceries will continue to boost mobile shopping, given its standing as a high-growth e-commerce category. Across both desktop and mobile, $66.9 billion was spent online for groceries from January to July 2024, up an impressive 15 percent YoY.

A similar trend has been observed in personal care, which includes cosmetics (a growth category that drove $22.6 billion online across desktop and mobile from January to July 2024, up 7.6 percent YoY). In personal care, a staggering 77 percent of online sales came through mobile devices in July 2024, having overtaken desktop back in July 2019. Mobile is also the dominant transaction channel in apparel at 60.8 percent share in July 2024, having overtaken desktop in May 2020.

Other major categories such as electronics has seen less traction on mobile, where share currently sits at 21.3 percent (July 2024). The same can be said for the home improvement category, where mobile share sits at 33.3 percent (July 2024)

“Adobe Analytics data shows that consumers have embraced mobile shopping for purchases that are more frequent and lower in price, but we expect larger purchase will begin to shift towards smaller screens as well” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “Adobe’s data also shows that basket sizes on mobile are 32 percent smaller than on desktop, which presents both a challenge and opportunity for brands to refine mobile experiences and close the gap to drive revenue.”

Difference between large and small retailers

Larger retailers ($1 billion or more in annual revenue) have seen more of their customers shift towards smaller screens, with mobile capturing 52.8 percent share of online sales (monthly average). This contrasts with smaller retailers ($10 million to $100 million in annual revenue), where mobile share sits at 43 percent (monthly average). This presents an opportunity for smaller retailers, as mobile tends to drive more impulse shopping and revenue growth in turn.

Impact of inflation

Strong consumer spending this year has been driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices. The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories, shows that e-commerce prices have fallen for 23 months now — down 3.7 percent YoY in July 2024. Adobe’s spend figures are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would be even higher growth in topline consumer spend.